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CIV-R013Civita ResearchEdition 1.0.1July 2026

The price of optionality.

How selected investment-migration routes opened, repriced, narrowed, redesigned and closed from 2016 to July 2026, reconstructed from official public records.

Explore the findings Download the report
Named panel, not a global census.

The core panel contains 18 selected route families observed from 1 January 2016 through 14 July 2026. Counts and cases describe that panel. They are not market-wide estimates or advice.

Evidence fieldPublished dataset
Official and controlling sourcesCutoff 14 Jul 2026

01 / Thesis

The advertised minimum is a number. The option is a system.

A route can become cheaper, more expensive, narrower, structurally different or unavailable while an investor is still deciding. A passport can also lose a travel right without the program price moving at all. The useful unit of analysis is therefore not a brochure number. It is a dated legal event attached to a defined route, applicant profile and economic form.

02 / Findings

Four results. Every denominator exposed.

These findings are deliberately narrower than a market forecast. Each is backed by a structured claim card, named events, official-source IDs, an underlying table and a visible limitation.

F01 / Availability7

Seven studied route incarnations closed

Within Civita's named 18-route panel, six closure events have high-confidence support and one has medium-confidence, post-hoc official support between 2016 and July 2026.

This is a purposive panel, not the global market. Hungary later introduced a distinct successor route. Montenegro's first-unavailable date is inferred as 1 January 2023 from post-hoc official evidence that the program operated through 31 December 2022. The count does not mean seven jurisdictions became permanently unavailable.
F02 / Price path−75 / +60%

Türkiye shows why repricing is not one-way

The real-estate threshold fell 75% from USD 1,000,000 to USD 250,000 in 2018, then rose 60% to USD 400,000 in 2022. The 2022 threshold remained 60% below launch.

The USD 1 million launch threshold is medium-confidence retrospective official guidance rather than the captured 2017 amending regulation. Thresholds are not total applicant cost and say nothing about asset value, approval probability or processing time.
F03 / Comparability4 / 8

Half the apparent repricings survived the comparison test

Of 8 core-panel rows classified as repricing after source review, 4 qualified as matched observations under the report's effective-date, continuity and evidence rules.

This is an audit result for the report's eight candidate repricing rows, not the share of all investment-migration prices that can be compared.
F04 / Passport access4

Passport access changed without a program price change

The evidence records three stages in the EU's withdrawal of Vanuatu visa-free access and a 2026 UK visit-visa requirement for Saint Lucia.

Each measure applies to nationals generally, not only people who acquired citizenship through investment.

03 / Availability

Closure is an event, not always an ending.

Seven route incarnations in the named panel stopped accepting general new applicants or terminated. Six have high-confidence support. Montenegro is retained at medium confidence because the official evidence is retrospective. Hungary later introduced a distinct successor route, so the count is not seven countries permanently closed to investor migration.

Documented closure events in the 18-route panel
First unavailableJurisdictionStudied routeConfidenceEvidence
Apr 1, 2017HungaryInvestor ResidencyhighS037
Nov 1, 2020CyprusCitizenship by InvestmenthighS002
Feb 17, 2022United KingdomTier 1 Investor VisahighS001
Jan 1, 2023MontenegroCitizenship by InvestmentmediumS004
Feb 15, 2023IrelandImmigrant Investor ProgrammehighS005
Apr 3, 2025SpainGolden VisahighS006
Jul 29, 2025MaltaCitizenship for Investment (IIP / MEIN)highS010
How to read Montenegro.

The official government retrospective says the program operated through 31 December 2022. The table records 1 January 2023 as the inferred first full unavailable day and keeps the confidence at medium.

04 / Price continuity

A lower price can precede a higher one.

Türkiye's real-estate threshold fell from USD 1 million to USD 250,000 in 2018, then rose to USD 400,000 in 2022. The increase from the low was 60%. The 2022 amount still sat 60% below launch.

That path is why point-to-point headlines can tell opposite stories without either calculation being arithmetically wrong. The comparison is defensible here because the observed option remains a program-denominated USD property threshold. It is not the applicant's total cost and does not measure the quality or later value of the acquired property.

Primary evidenceS014 · Republic of Türkiye Land Registry and CadastreS015 · Investment Office of the Presidency of TürkiyeS016 · Republic of Türkiye Land Registry and CadastreS063 · Official Gazette of the Republic of Türkiye
Türkiye real-estate qualifying thresholdNominal program-denominated USD
$1,000,000Jan 12, 2017
medium
$250,000Sep 19, 2018
high
$400,000Jun 13, 2022
high
Türkiye real-estate qualifying thresholds used in the chart
Effective dateThresholdConfidence
2017-01-12$1,000,000medium
2018-09-19$250,000high
2022-06-13$400,000high

The USD 1 million launch threshold is medium-confidence retrospective official guidance; the 2018 and 2022 changes have captured controlling instruments.

05 / Comparison audit

Four price pairs survived. Four did not.

Eight core-panel rows looked like repricings after source review. Four met all three requirements: effective evidence, continuous route design and a like-for-like economic basis. The rest remain useful events, but turning them into percentage changes would create false precision.

Not matched

Antigua & Barbuda

The underlying statutory amendment was not captured; the contemporaneous operational form supplies the amount and dates.

2017-11-01
Matched

Antigua & Barbuda

same option, applicant basis and economic form with effective evidence

2024-08-01
Not matched

Dominica

The mapped article's express 1 July effective-date sentence applies to real-estate government fees, not the EDF threshold; the EDF statutory effective date remains unproved.

2024-07-01
Matched

Ireland

same option, applicant basis and economic form with effective evidence

2017-01-01
Not matched

St Kitts & Nevis

The SGF and SISC are different legal product names, but both are one-time non-refundable sovereign contributions on a main-applicant basis; successor status must remain visible.

2023-07-27
Not matched

St Lucia

The predecessor NEF amount is not preserved in the mapped source set, so this effective 2017 observation is not a matched price pair.

2017-01-01
Matched

Türkiye

same option, applicant basis and economic form with effective evidence

2018-09-19
Matched

Türkiye

same option, applicant basis and economic form with effective evidence

2022-06-13

The 26 eligible core events

Events are classified before claims are calculated. Openings, closures and redesigns are not smuggled into a price series.

Included core events by final event kind
close7
open3
option add1
option remove1
redesign5
reprice7
tier1
tighten1

06 / Passport access

The passport can change while the price stands still.

The evidence records three legal stages in the EU's withdrawal of Vanuatu visa-free access and a 2026 UK visit-visa requirement for Saint Lucia. These measures applied to nationals generally, not only to people who acquired citizenship through investment. That distinction is central, not a footnote.

May 4, 2022

Vanuatu

The EU partially suspended Vanuatu's visa exemption from 4 May 2022 for holders of ordinary passports issued from 25 May 2015.

all nationals, not only CBI participants.

Official source S032 →
Feb 4, 2023

Vanuatu

Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2023/222 extended the temporary visa-exemption suspension to all Vanuatu nationals from 4 February 2023 through 3 August 2024.

all nationals, not only CBI participants.

Official source S058 →
Feb 3, 2025

Vanuatu

Regulation (EU) 2025/11 permanently moved Vanuatu from the visa-exempt list to the visa-required list with effect from 3 February 2025.

all nationals, not only CBI participants.

Official source S033 →
Mar 5, 2026

St Lucia

The United Kingdom imposed a visit-visa requirement on Saint Lucia nationals at 15:00 GMT on 5 March 2026, with a limited prior-booking transition ending at 15:00 BST on 16 April 2026.

all nationals, not only CBI participants.

Official source S031 →

Appendix / Adjacent HNW policy

Italy's HNW flat-tax election tripled

Italy's annual new-resident flat-tax amount rose from EUR 100,000 to EUR 300,000 between 2017 and 2026, a 200% increase.

This is a recurring tax election, not a citizenship- or residence-by-investment qualifying threshold. It is excluded from every core-panel count.

Annual Article 24-bis amount
01€100,000Jan 1, 2017
02€200,000Aug 10, 2024
03€300,000Jan 1, 2026

07 / Methods and limits

Built to be challenged.

The report began with 52 candidate rows. Each row was resolved to an event kind, legal stage, analytical date, route-continuity decision, confidence and source set. Twenty-six events entered the core analysis. Four nationality-wide access events and three Italy tax events remain in separate appendices. Context rows stay downloadable so readers can see what was excluded and why.

Every public event maps to an official or controlling source, exact locator and durable capture or verified extract. Sixty-one of 63 registered sources have a checksum-validated capture or extract. The two missing captures are not used by any headline claim. This report does not claim peer review, counsel review, private fieldwork, market completeness or applicant-level evidence.

The 18-route panel is purposive and is not a census of the global market.

The report measures documented legal availability and qualifying thresholds, not demand, approval probability, processing speed or investor outcomes.

Price changes are compared only when the option, applicant basis and economic form remain materially continuous.

Nationality-wide travel-access measures affect all nationals and are not attributed only to citizenship-by-investment participants.

Italy's Article 24-bis tax election is an adjacent HNW mobility policy and is excluded from every core-panel count.

08 / Source ledger

The claims point back to the record.

The public source register contains 63 official or controlling records. The 25 records below support the five published claim cards directly. Links go to the issuing government, legislature, gazette or supranational legal database wherever the official host remains available.

25sources used directly by the published claim set
Claim evidence25 records
S001 · UK Home OfficeTier 1 Investor visa route closes over security concerns
↗
S002 · Republic of Cyprus Ministry of FinanceCyprus Investment Programme registry notice
↗
S004 · Government of MontenegroThe 37th Cabinet session
↗
S005 · Government of Ireland Department of JusticeMinister Harris announces closure of the Immigrant Investor Programme
↗
S006 · Spain Boletín Oficial del EstadoOrganic Law 1/2025
↗
S010 · Malta legislation serviceLegal Notice 159 of 2025
↗
S037 · Hungarian National Legislation DatabaseRegulation 45/2017
↗
S014 · Republic of Türkiye Land Registry and CadastreTürkiye immovable-property acquisition guide
↗
S015 · Investment Office of the Presidency of TürkiyeNew Turkish citizenship rules encourage foreign investment
↗
S016 · Republic of Türkiye Land Registry and CadastreTurkish Citizenship Law implementation circular
↗
S063 · Official Gazette of the Republic of TürkiyePresidential Decision No. 106 amending the Regulation on Implementation of the Turkish Citizenship Law
↗
S021 · Dominica Citizenship by Investment UnitDominica price increase to align with OECS memorandum
↗
S022 · Antigua and Barbuda Citizenship by Investment UnitCitizenship by Investment Amendment Regulations 2024 S.I. No. 50
↗
S028 · Government of St Kitts and NevisCitizenship by Substantial Investment Regulations SRO 26 of 2023
↗
S042 · Irish Naturalisation and Immigration ServiceImmigrant Investor Programme Guidelines for Applicants
↗
S052 · Government of Saint LuciaCitizenship by Investment Amendment Regulations SI105 of 2016
↗
S057 · Antigua and Barbuda Citizenship by Investment UnitInvestment Confirmation Form AB4 Version 4 January 2018
↗
S060 · Houses of the OireachtasDail Eireann written answer 99 Immigrant Investor Programme Administration
↗
S031 · UK Home OfficeExplanatory memorandum HC 1691
↗
S032 · European CommissionImplementing Regulation EU 2022/693
↗
S033 · European Parliament and CouncilRegulation EU 2025/11
↗
S058 · European Commission and Official Journal of the European UnionCommission Delegated Regulation EU 2023/222 on temporary suspension of the visa exemption for all nationals of Vanuatu
↗
S018 · Italian Republic Gazzetta UfficialeDecree-Law 113/2024 converted by Law 143/2024
↗
S019 · Italian Republic Gazzetta UfficialeLaw 199/2025 Budget Law 2026
↗
S048 · Italian Republic Gazzetta UfficialeLaw 232 of 2016 Budget Law 2017
↗
Full locators, access dates and event mappings are in the downloadable source register and inclusion log.

09 / Reproduce it

Download the report and its workings.

Public data files are licensed CC BY 4.0. Cite Civita and link to this report. The narrative and design remain copyright Civita. Every file in the release is covered by the SHA-256 manifest.

01
Full report PDFDesigned edition · PDF
02
Included core events26 rows · CSV
03
Complete inclusion log52 decisions · CSV
04
Claim cardsClaims, denominators and limits · JSON
05
Source register63 official or controlling sources · CSV
06
Methods protocolFrozen v1.0 · Markdown
07
Release manifestSHA-256 artifact hashes · JSON

Recommended citation

Civita Research (2026), The Civita Optionality Report 2026, version 1.0.1, citizenships.io/optionality-report-2026/.

Version

1.0.1 · Data through 14 July 2026

Presentation revision; findings and datasets unchanged from 1.0.0.

The Civita standard

Show the work.
Then earn the conclusion.

Original public-record research with inspectable definitions, versioned evidence, downloadable data and limitations that remain visible after publication.

View the corrections log